In the tense back-and-forth between Israel, the US and the Palestinian authority over extending the recently expired settlement freeze, there is a subtle and unspoken pressure being applied to the Jewish residents of Judea and Samaria (commonly referred to as settlers). The widespread expectation is that if an agreement is reached for creation of a Palestinian State in the West Bank that there will be adjustments to the 1949 armistice line (Green Line) so that the major settlement blocs in which the bulk of the Jews in Judea and Samaria reside will formally become part of Israel.
The settlement freeze essentially holds these larger communities hostage and sets up a wedge between these communities and the smaller communities outside of those blocs and could divide their supporters throughout Israel. With a freeze or pressure for it, these larger communities are barred from new construction that is required to accommodate new residents and natural population growth even though pretty much everyone expects these towns will be part of Israel in any end scenario. Once a border between Israel and a future Arab-Palestinian state is negotiated, the freeze could be lifted on those communities which will be part of Israel and they can resume construction for more residents. Meanwhile, those Jewish-populated communities that are outside Israel's border would be on the bloc to be evacuated and destroyed (since it is the longstanding Arab-Palestinian position that their future state will be Jew-free).
So the residents in communities such as Maaleh Adumim, Gush Etzion, Givat Zeev, perhaps Ariel and others face a dilemma. Do they stand with their compatriots in more outlying communities and continue to oppose creation of an Arab-Palestinian state in the heart of the historic land of Israel that would pose a threat to the heart of Israel's population centers, and thus face continued strangulation of their communities' ability to grow? Or, do they acquiesce to the demands for creating an Arab-Palestinian state and end the limbo in which their communities are placed while essentially throwing residents of more outlying communities "under the bus" and accept the dangers that an Arab-Palestinian state that will likely be taken over by Hamas will pose?
The stakes and implications in this dilemma are large and its a potentially strong but quiet lever that the United States may be wielding to force Israel to accept the American policy of establishing an Arab-Palestinian state. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's right-leaning coalition is composed of parties that draw much support from the settlers and their allies throughout Israel. The settler population is not uniform in its religious and ideological outlook but if they are split apart by the wedge of the settlement freeze, Israel's right-leaning nationalist camp would be divided and resistance to creation of an Arab-Palestinian state and its attendant dangers could be greatly weakened. Or, at least that may be the calculation of those who demand a freeze while negotiations take place.
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